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on OTC stocks and the display industry
10:53 02-Oct-16
On 9/13/16 3:25 PM, Esekla wrote:
Thanks for the kind words, Hank,
I don't think I can take much credit on RESN. Although I identified the potential, the market is valuing it in ways that I don't agree with. Everything else has gone pretty much as envisioned; with BGCP, I've said on multiple occasions that it would require a lot of patience, but at 7% yield, I don't see that as a problem.
I believe I've heard of OrboTech before, as an equipment provider rather than display maker in their own right. Let me know if I'm missing something, as it sounded like you were talking about the company making backplanes rather than the equipment that makes the panels. As an manufacturing equipment supplier, OT has seen lots of demand. They all have. That may last for a few more quarters, but I tend to focus other areas of the business because the guys that make the tools rather than the consumables are very cyclical. That said, the stock looks fairly priced, in that the hybrid PE comes in under 10, after subtracting out over $4 in cash on the balance sheet. I don't see much of a reason to buy it at these levels, but no big red flags either. Just keep an eye on the market, and feel free to ask me about it again down the road, When the growth cycle wains, these stocks can easily become dreary and forgotten.
As mentioned on SA, (and in my service first) Samsung is looking at QD emitting materials from Nanoco as an alternative to large AMOLED screens. My outlook hasn't really changed from the skeptical one I've voiced to subscribers. I think much of the waffling and rumors have do with Samsung keeping options open while renegotiating its agreement with UDC at the end of next year. However, in terms of what will actually happen, it's still hard to see QDs making serious commercial progress past the superior color filter LCD usage they are seeing now on the low end of the market, especially with inkjet organic printing on the way.
I'd looked at QTMM in the distant past, but I'd be careful with it now. It seems like they might have to raise cash soon, and now they are dabbling in oil markets? I'm not a fan of dabbling in stocks without major exchange listings. The reporting requirements even for major exchanges are loose and badly enforced as is. For OTC stocks it's inadvisable to have faith in anything you read, even if directly from management. You might want to look at my writings on OCAT, particularly the most recent, as a case study on the dangers of investing in companies bringing potentially disruptive technology to market. Even legitimate breakthroughs don't necessarily make investors any money, and every year spent waiting is lost opportunity cost.
Esekla
On 09/13/2016 02:15 PM, William wrote:
Thanks, Esekla! I was going to follow up with you and you've generously beat me to it.
First of all, you've had terrific calls this year. Congrats are definitely in order. RESN, ERII, MX, AUO. BGCP has otherwise been flat, but a very interesting selection. (I own all of the above.)
You have a great understanding of the display optics industry and I was asking if you've ever looked at ORBK. They make flat panel display for OLED use. Their fpd demand is thus increasing. ORBK may have a lock on the best tech for OLED's back end mechanics.
Although you speak of quantum dot developments in your email updates, my sense is that QD development is currently dominated by Samsung. QD may be a paradigm changer. So I was wondering if there might be more pure-play QD companies an investor could look at to get ahead of the curve. I don't really find companies the size of Samsung to be investable. (I understand nothing is certain for QD. It's still early. There may be disqualifying flaws inherent to QD.)
Several years ago I invested a very small amount in QTMM. At the time it was the only public company I could find working in QD tech outside of Samsung . Admittedly, QTMM is not much of a company. Basically a garage-size venture that is a complete speculation. Fortuitously I've always shown a pretty decent paper profit in QTMM. But frankly, I can't evaluate it. Should I sell out or buy some more? A few months ago a new Chairman became such by raising capital and installing a new CEO. On the face of it, this should be bullish. But I don't have the tech chops to truly evaluate QD and this nano-size company.
I recently renewed my subscription to CrowdWisers and appreciate your good work.
Best, Hank
Hank,
Did you want follow up on the questions you asked in the LPL article, or were you just looking to comment publicly? Email is always the better way to go if you want a response.
Esekla
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